Disrupting Geostrategic Thought
Futura Consideranda: Consequential Leadership
A Leader Considers History There are many qualities required of a worthwhile leader. Having good advisers is an excellent start. Another key quality is the ability to think in terms of tomorrow.
Idle Meandering Thoughts (Part 2 of 2)
Russian intelligence has a long-running interest in identifying, collecting, correlating and ultimately exploiting information that users would rather remain obscure.
Politics as the Continuation of Conflict
John Sjoholm analyzes hybrid conflict and Russian strategic thinking.
Guarding the Guard: When the Cellist Held the Rifle
A profile of Mstislav Rostropovich: cellist, conductor, exile, and the refusal to become harmless. Personal authors note:I have returned to this one photograph for years. I first saw it in the 1990s,
The Reliability Problem
American systems and security availability become less predictable when the security situation accelerates and becomes acute for the recipient. Ukraine experienced this dynamic, and Taiwan now appears to be encountering the same
Lebanon: Inside the Shell
The 2008 Lebanon conflict continues to be misunderstood in much of Western discourse as a confrontation between a sovereign state and a non-state militia ...
Lebanon: Beirut and the Polycentric Reality
The balance of power in Lebanon may be shifting. In a few days, I will again be involved in discussions with a Middle Eastern client on regional developments. Without disclosing anything sensitive,
Stably Unstable: The Architecture of Russia’s Hybrid War in the Western Balkans (2026)
Russia’s hybrid war in the Western Balkans in 2026 reflects a mature strategy. Rather than seeking escalation, Moscow seeks position. It is a case study in a long‑term, managed, condition. And, for Moscow, a
Working Hypothesis: Europe Seeks Relative Advantage from US Overextension
U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure are unlikely to achieve compliance goals. The more probable response is indirect escalation through asymmetric means, calibrated to impose cost without inviting immediate, decisive retaliation. This is
Mission Profile: Soft Power as the New Dominion
Donald Trump and his administration’s haphazard approach to alliance discipline, strategic continuity, and the maintenance of American primacy supplied the final lesson: Europe can no longer rely on the American security order.
Tech companies collaborate to counter pervasive security loophole
Technology companies are attempting to fix a chip design flaw that exposes almost all computer and smartphone users to the theft of
Turkey attempts to reset relations in Europe with meetings in France, Germany
This Friday and Saturday both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu were in Europe, France and Germany respectively, attempting
South Korea, U.S. suspend military exercises until after Winter Olympics
This week the US and South Korea agreed to suspend military exercises off the Korean Peninsula until after the Winter Olympic Games. The
Ethiopia moves to release political prisoners, close notorious detention center
In a surprise move, Ethiopia’s prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, announced Wednesday that the government will be shutting the infamous Maekelawi detention facility
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Has there been a shift in Europe’s balance of power?
In 2017, several noteworthy elections occurred across Europe. Arguably, the two most significant were the French presidential and German federal elections. The
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Pakistan pivots to China’s currency following withdrawal of U.S. Aid
On Thursday, the U.S. State Department suspended all security aid to Pakistan, announcing a further cut after the U.S. Ambassador to the United
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Parliament dissolved as Italy prepares for election to break political deadlock
On Thursday Italy’s President, Sergio Mattarella dissolved the parliament, and the political class now has three months before the first elections since
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Putin squashes main political opponent, but at what cost?
On December 6, 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the industrial city of Nizhny Novgorod, approximately 250 miles east of Moscow, to
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Venezuela announces issuance of cryptocurrency ‘Petro’ amid reality of hyperinflation
Lima Charlie Business | South America, Venezuela Something in Venezuela Square in Caracas was conspicuously absent this Christmas: lights. This year Venezuela has
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Russia’s recession ends as Putin prepares for another term
Lima Charlie Business | Russia As 2017 comes to a close, Russia will have attained positive growth for the first time in
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What can we expect from Trump’s National Security Strategy?
The Trump administration released its “America First” National Security Strategy (NSS) this week. Many are scratching their heads trying to figure out
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President Trump’s National Security Strategy – the New Cold War
On December 18th, the Trump administration revealed its new National Security Strategy (NSS). For politicos and history buffs alike, it held few
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Despite North Korea’s aggressive posturing regional cooperation remains elusive
On December 19, Admiral John Richardson, Chief of U.S. Naval Operations, addressed over a thousand US sailors aboard the USS Ronald Reagan
UK backs Poland over European Union sanction
Just hours after the EU began moving to sanction Poland, British Prime Minister Theresa May assured Poles that the U.K. supports them,