Lebanon: Beirut and the Polycentric Reality
The balance of power in Lebanon may be shifting. In a few days, I will again be involved in discussions with a
Disrupting Geostrategic Thought
Stably Unstable: The Architecture of Russia’s Hybrid War in the Western Balkans (2026)
Russia’s hybrid war in the Western Balkans in 2026 reflects a mature strategy. Rather than seeking escalation, Moscow seeks position. It is a
Working Hypothesis: Europe Seeks Relative Advantage from US Overextension
U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure are unlikely to achieve compliance goals. The more probable response is indirect escalation through asymmetric means, calibrated
Mission Profile: Soft Power as the New Dominion
Donald Trump and his administration’s haphazard approach to alliance discipline, strategic continuity, and the maintenance of American primacy supplied the final lesson:
Rest In Peace Vojvoda (Duke) Slavko (Ilije) Aleksić
Slavko Aleksić (Војвода Славко Алексић), a Bosnian Serb Chetnik commander (vojvoda) who commanded the New Sarajevo Chetnik Detachment of the Army of
Soft Power as Dominion: Speaking Softly, Building Systems
The most durable power is not enforced at gunpoint; it is embedded in systems. My industry has a simple rule: never do
The Currency War Nobody Wants to Name
Venezuela did not become problematic because it was authoritarian, corrupt, or illegitimate. It had been all three for years without provoking decisive
Vae Victis: Putin Wins
A frozen conflict would be a Russian victory in anything but name. Why a frozen conflict in Ukraine would amount to a
The Reassurance Trap
The Reassurance Trap: When Realism Is Rendered Consequence-Free With Trump’s appearance at Davos, the world on edge, and the frontlines unstable, reassurance
Europe’s Liberal Self-Deception
Order was once built; its absence is now assumed. Europe is not undergoing an ideological shift, but an analytical collapse. Great powers
Weaponisation of the Suffering – Frozen Conflicts, Displacement, and the Utility of Human Movement
Human suffering scales efficiently when it is managed. The weaponisation of refugees is a low-cost, high-leverage instrument for states able to tolerate
Europe must decide whether it intends to remain a consumer of security or finally become its producer
The Russia-Ukraine conflict endures not because it is strategically complex, but because it is strategically convenient. But the truth beneath the rhetoric
Europe will survive only if it pays someone else to die in its place
Toute vérité n’est pas bonne à dire: Purchased Frontiers. “War is not about who is right, but who is left.” Sweden does
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Blossoming Russo-Turkish alliance leaves U.S., NATO behind
Amid the failed politics of Patriot missiles and F-35s, Moscow and Ankara’s blossoming relationship has left NATO and U.S. interests exposed.
Cyber Warfare Now – Tales from the Digital Battlefield
Democracies worldwide are facing critical challenges from ever expanding cyberwarfare operations with the ability to not just threaten infrastructure, but to control
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STRATEGIC OPTION | Syrian Endgame – The Hard Truth
A harsh reality is that the Syrian revolution is an abject failure. Nothing will rescue the dream of Syrian democracy. It’s time
