Disrupting Geostrategic Thought
Futura Consideranda: Consequential Leadership
A Leader Considers History There are many qualities required of a worthwhile leader. Having good advisers is an excellent start. Another key quality is the ability to think in terms of tomorrow.
Idle Meandering Thoughts (Part 2 of 2)
Russian intelligence has a long-running interest in identifying, collecting, correlating and ultimately exploiting information that users would rather remain obscure.
Politics as the Continuation of Conflict
John Sjoholm analyzes hybrid conflict and Russian strategic thinking.
Guarding the Guard: When the Cellist Held the Rifle
A profile of Mstislav Rostropovich: cellist, conductor, exile, and the refusal to become harmless. Personal authors note:I have returned to this one photograph for years. I first saw it in the 1990s,
The Reliability Problem
American systems and security availability become less predictable when the security situation accelerates and becomes acute for the recipient. Ukraine experienced this dynamic, and Taiwan now appears to be encountering the same
Lebanon: Inside the Shell
The 2008 Lebanon conflict continues to be misunderstood in much of Western discourse as a confrontation between a sovereign state and a non-state militia ...
Lebanon: Beirut and the Polycentric Reality
The balance of power in Lebanon may be shifting. In a few days, I will again be involved in discussions with a Middle Eastern client on regional developments. Without disclosing anything sensitive,
Stably Unstable: The Architecture of Russia’s Hybrid War in the Western Balkans (2026)
Russia’s hybrid war in the Western Balkans in 2026 reflects a mature strategy. Rather than seeking escalation, Moscow seeks position. It is a case study in a long‑term, managed, condition. And, for Moscow, a
Working Hypothesis: Europe Seeks Relative Advantage from US Overextension
U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure are unlikely to achieve compliance goals. The more probable response is indirect escalation through asymmetric means, calibrated to impose cost without inviting immediate, decisive retaliation. This is
Mission Profile: Soft Power as the New Dominion
Donald Trump and his administration’s haphazard approach to alliance discipline, strategic continuity, and the maintenance of American primacy supplied the final lesson: Europe can no longer rely on the American security order.
