NOV 2 – South East Asia News Briefing: Kerry Pushes for TPP; China’s New Core Leader; Philippines Duterte Meltdowns; Burma’s Ethnic Tensions Test Peace.

Asia

#JohnKerry #DownWithTPP

Last week U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Congress to ratify the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, better known as TPP. TPP includes twelve of the Pacific Rim countries including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Notably absent is China, that could be added at a later date along with other nations. Mr. Kerry argued that failure to pass would force Southeast Asian nations to turn to China and Russia for trade deals.

“It would be a gigantic self-inflicted wound – a setback to our own interests in the region,” Kerry told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Kerry’s remarks were met with both applause and boos. He went on to state, “It would amount to a conscious turning of our backs on the Asia Pacific at the very moment that we ought to be linking arms – it would be an act that will hurt American workers, slow our economy, hinder our ability to advance the full range of U.S. objectives”. Kerry said the trade deal was a “litmus” test of Washington’s capacity to lead and was necessary if the United States wanted a steady and reliable presence in the region.

If ratified, it is argued that TPP would collectively contribute to over 40 percent of the world’s economic output, cut over 18,000 tariffs, aid in environmental protection and human rights, regulate labor standards, and straighten cooperation between member states.

Critics of the deal point to a lack of accountability and transparency, as well as a loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. Currently both presidential candidates oppose TPP.

The alternative to TPP would be China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is made up of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India. The United States is excluded from RCEP.

Opponents argue that RCEP would collectively produce roughly the same economic output as TPP, allowing China to dictate the future of business in Asia. In addition, opponents argue that RCEP would not aid in environmental protection, human rights, or the regulation of labor standards. Another weak point is the safeguarding of intellectual property, with no provisions on copyright laws. Critics argue that such a failure would allow members to cannibalize one another’s intellectual property, which could lead to trade wars.

Kerry isn’t alone in his plea to pass TPP. In July, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman stated that failure to ratify TPP would hand China “the keys to the castle” and “give China the opportunity to boost its exports and set labor and environmental standards in the fast-growing Asia Pacific region through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.” Secretary of Defense Ash Carter also weighed in earlier this year stating, “you may not expect to hear this from a Secretary of Defense, but in terms of our rebalance in the broadest sense, passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier.”

According to Carter, “Time’s running out: we already see countries in the region trying to carve up these markets forging many separate trade agreements in recent years, some based on pressure and special arrangements rather than openness and principle. Agreements that don’t incorporate our high standards and leave us on the sidelines. That risks America’s access to these growing markets, and it risks regional instability. We must all decide if we are going to let that happen.”

TPP faces strong resistance from Congress and it is highly unlikely it will get passed. This election cycle has shown that many Americans are calling for a strong isolationist approach, despite historic indication that isolationism has never been good for the United States.

Many experts fear that should TPP not pass, or a new alternative presented by the next U.S. President, serious repercussions may result in the U.S. losing both economic and political importance in Asia. Some predict the U.S. may have to come begging hat-in-hand to join the Chinese dominated RCEP.

As the United States continues to lose influence over its traditional friends and allies in Asia, what will be the U.S.’s position in a century that has already been dubbed the “Century of Asia”?

China

#ChinaCore #CoreLeader

Last week China’s Communist Party bestowed upon President Xi Jinping the honor of “Core” leader. At the end of the Central Committee’s four day annual meeting, a communique was released stating that all of the members of the Communist Party of China should “closely unite around the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core.”

The position puts Mr. Xi on the same footing as Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and former president Jiang Zemin. Xi only assumed the office of president four years ago and his rapid consolidation of power has been nothing short of remarkable. His predecessor, Hu Jintao, credited with modernizing China’s infrastructure, was never able to consolidate power as Xi has.

The term “Core leader” or he xin (核心) in Mandarin, was coined by Deng Xiaoping after the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising. The term was meant to refer to Mao, himself and Jiang Zemin, who was appointed to CCP chief, as the nucleus of the party. Whomever is “he xin” has almost absolute authority and should not be questioned.

U.S. based China scholar Li Hongkuan, told Radio Free Asia, “This is the doing of Xi Jinping’s own faction, who are actually trying to establish his authority … But the more the Chinese Communist Party does things like this, the more it suggests that his authority is under threat; it’s possible that some people at the level of the Politburo [standing committee] don’t recognize it,” he said.

Li added, “Actually I think he has already lost his authority, because people are protecting each other, and they’re already lying down on the job. He no longer has the ability to motivate people,” according to RFA.

Questions have arisen whether Xi’s newfound title represents too much power for one man to have after only four years in office. While Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has already caused suspicion throughout the party, it is likely this new title will keep his political opponents at bay.

Regardless of title, concerns remain that if Xi cannot solve China’s current economic woes, the party may not remain as loyal.

Philippines

#LookAtTheseMonkeys

Last Wednesday, while on a trip to Japan, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared, “I will pursue an independent foreign policy. I want, maybe in the next two years, my country free of the presence of foreign military troops. I want them out.” His reference to U.S. military presence, and demand the U.S. leave, has been a recurring theme.

Duterte left Japan reportedly with the promise of two new vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard and $19 billion in investment and loan pledges.

The U.S. currently has access to five military bases, pursuant to base hosting agreements with the Philippines, some less than 500 miles from Chinese constructed islands.

Two weeks ago, while on a state visit to China, Duterte had declared, “I announce my separation from the United States, both in military but economics also.” As in Japan, by all appearances Duterte’s trip to China was also a success. Duterte claimed to have achieved roughly $24 billion in Chinese investments, ranging from railways, ports, energy, mining soft loans and credit deals from Chinese Banks. Both sides avoided discussion about the South China Sea dispute, focusing on economic cooperation. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin affirmed, “Both sides agreed that the South China Sea issue is not the sum total of the bilateral relationship.”

Duterte would later speak at a Chinese and Philippine business forum proclaiming, “America has lost it” and “maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world: China, Philippines and Russia.”

Duterte then backtracked his position. “It’s not severance of ties,” Duterete explained at a press conference upon returning from China. “When you say severance of ties, you cut diplomatic relations. I cannot do that.” Duterte expressed that if he cut ties with the U.S., “the Filipinos in the United States will kill me,” considering many Filipinos live in the U.S. and vice versa. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay scrambled to clarify, reiterating that the U.S. is the “closest friend” of the Philippines, but Manila wants to break away from a “mindset of dependency and subservience” and forge closer ties with other countries.

“Look at these monkeys.”

Then there’s today. Facing pressure from human rights groups over Duterte’s bloody war on drugs, the U.S. halted the sale of 26,000 M4 assault rifles to the Philippine National Police. In a televised appearance Duterte railed, “Look at these monkeys, the 26,000 firearms we wanted to buy, they don’t want to sell … Son of a bitch, we have many homemade guns here. These American fools.” As previously reported, more than 3,800 people have been killed in Duterte’s drug war, drawing international criticism from the EU, US, the United Nations and human rights groups. Duterte indicated he might turn to Russia or China for the weapons.

While Duterte’s rhetoric and consistent backpedaling may cause confusion in Washington, a full ideological shift towards Beijing or Moscow would not be popular at home and would likely be political suicide. Philippine opinion polls have shown Filipinos still trust the U.S. far more than China or Russia. Duterte’s best bet for improving the economic situation in the Philippines is to continue to play his current role of unpredictable ally in order to get military assistance, attention from Washington, and the Chinese out of Philippine territorial waters.

In other news …

Friday, October 28, Samsudin Dimaukom, Mayor of the southern town of Saudi Ampatuan, was gunned down by Philippine anti-narcotics officers. The Mayor and nine of his men clashed with anti-narcotics officers when Dimaukom’s men open fired after police stopped their vehicle at a check point. Allegedly the police acted on a tip that Dimaukom’s men were transporting a large shipment of methamphetamine from Davao city to Maguindanao Province, where Saudi Ampatuan is located.

Dimaukom had been singled out by Duterte, along with 150 local government officials, judges and police for involvement in the drug trade. No drugs were reportedly found in Dimaukom’s vehicle.

Myanmar | Burma

On October 9^th, a series of well-coordinated attacks on posts along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, had left nine police officers and five soldiers dead. Reportedly carried out by members of the Rohingya ethnic minority, the attackers were armed mainly with knives and home made slingshots. The border posts, near Maungdaw in Rakhine State Myanmar, were also looted of more than 50 guns and thousands of rounds of ammunition. The previously unknown militant group Al-Yakin Mujahidin claimed reasonability.

Since the attacks, the Burmese Army has carried out operations in the region drawing harsh criticism from the United Nations, along with various human rights groups, aid groups and the international community. Rapes, theft of property and the indiscriminate burning of villagers’ homes have been reported.

In 2012, intense violence erupted between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhist Rakhines, leaving 78 people dead, and displacing more than 140,000. The Muslim Rohingya who live in Rakhine State are not recognized as one of the 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar, and therefore have been denied citizenship. This has lead to discrimination and statelessness of Muslim Rohingya within the country. Many of Rakhine State’s Muslim Rohingya live in IDP camps. The term “Rohingya,” a name that many Muslims in Rakhine State use to identify themselves, is considered very controversial amongst the Buddhist majority, who refer to them as Bengali.

This recent wave of violence and the emergence of a new Ethnic Armed Organization, allegedly supported by overseas Islamist groups, is a major problem of Myanmar State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, and her National League for Democracy led government. Just last month, Suu Kyi welcomed the establishment of a new Rakhine (Arakan) State Advisory Commission, led by former United Nation’s General Secretary Kofi Annan. The goal of the nine member commission is to help ease tensions between Buddhist Rakhine and the Muslim Rohingya.

Recently, dozens of women have come forward claiming to have been raped by Burmese Army soldiers. According to Reuters, one woman who was repeatedly raped was told, “We will kill you. We will not allow you to live in this country.”

As the Burmese Army conducts major clearance operations aimed at hunting down militants, with reports of human right abuses mounting, it appears that Suu Kyi’s goal of achieving peace and national reconciliation is at risk. Under the 2008 Myanmar Constitution the Burmese Army holds key ministerial posts, including defense, border affairs and home affairs. Such power remains a critical obstacle to the success of Suu Kyi’s goals and administration.

The road to peace in Myanmar has been a very long and troubled one. Despite recent developments, great progress has been made, as reported by Lima Charlie: